India bond index inclusion to trigger up to $40 billion inflows, says HSBC

LONDON: Government bonds are likely to gain inclusion in global indexes in 2022, bringing potential inflows of between $30 billion and $40 billion, HSBC analysts estimate.
HSBC said an announcement about India’s inclusion in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (BGAI) and JPMorgan’s GBI-EM Index (GBI-EM) could happen before the end of 2021, with inclusion to follow in 2022.
The bonds could suck in potential flows of $30 billion to $40 billion in the event Fully Accessible Route (FAR) government securities were included in both indexes, HSBC said.
The Reserve Bank of India introduced FAR last year to attract foreign investors.
Foreign ownership of FAR bonds would rise from 3% currently to 10%-13%, HSBC forecast.
“For EM (emerging market) investors, a low foreign ownership of India bonds, strong external balances and a relatively low correlation of India government bond yields with major bond markets could provide an attractive source of diversification,” the analysts said in the note.

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